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Colin F
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Topic: BEST JACKPOT LOTTO GAME IN THE WORLD
    Posted: August 06 2010 at 9:33pm
BEST JACKPOT LOTTO GAME IN THE WORLD
by Colin Fairbrother

 Lottery operators currently work on the basis of very big Jackpots to draw interest and increase ticket sales. For regular players who accept that in all probability they will never win a Lotto jackpot in their lifetime but still play, of more interest is how often they get a win and the percentage return.
 
Recently 12th May 2010 the parameters for the UK Thunderball Jackpot game were changed from a Pool of 34 to 39 for the main numbers but still 1 from 14 for the Power or Thunderball and a £3 prize if you got the Thunderball alone. The operators state they return 52.882% of sales in prizes. First prize is a not insignificant £500,000.00. Prize and Odds breakdown are as follows: -
 

  Prize                 Win £    Odds 1 in

5 Main + Thunderball   500,000   8,060,598
5 Main                   5,000     620,046
4 Main + Thunderball       250      47,415
4 Main                     100       3,647
3 Main Thunderball          20       1,437
2 Main + Thunderball        10         135
3 Main                      10         111
1 Main + Thunderball         5          35
0 Main + Thunderball         3          29

 

On a Usenet group I posted a set of 14 numbers produced by LottoToWin. The group over the years since 1995 has had contributions from those capable of thinking in this area of interest but now has been taken over by a dozen or so predictionists, loonies and foul mouthed UseNet thugs. Having made the group unbearable to any one with any self respect, they now indulge in trivial abusive banter between themselves somehow thinking the traffic to the group is reading their garbage when in fact I have discovered the overwhelming majority is going to previous articles which the likes of Google have included in their links. 

As each of the ThunderBalls were in my set at least a £3 prize would be won for each draw over the 20 week trial. See Numbers Posted or: -
 

01  04  12  25  35    PB 11
11  16  18  29  34    PB 10
08  24  26  32  33    PB 09
10  17  22  36  37    PB 01
07  13  19  30  38    PB 04
05  06  09  14  27    PB 07
03  15  20  28  31    PB 06
02  21  23  35  39    PB 12
01  02  08  16  36    PB 03
04  17  29  32  39    PB 05
10  11  12  21  33    PB 13
22  23  25  26  34    PB 14
05  18  24  30  37    PB 08
13  14  16  24  31    PB 02  

My return percentage of 60% for a LottoToWin set was better than the odds for the five lowest prize levels which indicate a return of 43% is in order. 
 
DrawDateCost3+TB32+TB1+TB0+TBPrizesCum
June 23, 201014


1
55
June 25, 201014



138
June 26, 201014


1
513
June 30, 201014



1316
July 2, 201014


1
521
July 3, 201014
1

11334
July 7, 201014


1
539
July 9, 201014
1

11352
July 10, 201014



1355
July 14, 2010141



2075
July 16, 201014


1
580
July 17, 201014


1
1595
July 21, 201014



1398
July 23, 201014



113111
July 24, 2010141



20131
July 28, 2010141



20151
July 30, 201014


1
5156
July 31, 201014



13159
Aug 4, 201014


1
5164
Aug 6, 201014



13167

Percentage Return 167/280 * 100 = 59.64%

By comparison the resident chief predictionist and village idiot in that usenet group Robert Perkis (or Bob P) who deludes himself into thinking he knows something other than nonsense in this field of interest, achieved only a very weak 29% return. A reasonable estimate of his brain size based on his irrational ramblings would indicate his head to be no larger than a pin!
 
Another petty Lotto syndicate scammer, con-artist and idiot Nicholas Carlin of Poole, Bournemouth, Dorset, England who goes under the pseudonym Nick or Nick UK posted only one set of numbers on June 22, 2010 and got below the expected 43% with only 34%. This mortified him so much that he subsequently published a fictitious set of 18 results without publishing the lines played and outside the predetermined dates and after the draws (a common ruse by Lotto charlatans using tickets purchased by others), which included two £100 wins to give a 133% return.As the saying goes - lower than a snakes belly. See Nick's Fictitious Wins  
 
An interesting point is that the UK Thunderball game gives the best guaranteed return I know of in a Jackpot Lotto game. For an outlay of £14 for 14 lines if you play all 14 Thunderballs you are guaranteed a £3 minimum return ie 21.43%.

Academics and others justified playing high cost distorted prize range Covers or Wheels that guaranteed a small prize for a disproportionately high cost, purportedly because Lotto players wanted to get a prize in every draw no matter what. (Never did see any statistics to support this argument.)

If you so desperately want a guaranteed prize every draw and play the 163 line cover for the 6/49 game then in the UK you get a guaranteed £10 for an outlay of  £163.00 or 6.13%. In the USA the payouts are lower so, for example Washington pays a minimum $3 for an outlay of $81.50 or only 3.68%  The UK Thunderball is an unbeatable minimum prize guarantee for a Jackpot Lotto game at 21.43% if playing all the Thunderballs at a cost of £14. 
 
Personally, I think most Lotto players would like to get a prize regularly and in proportion to what they spend with the objective of having a chance, albeit extremely minimal, of a Jackpot win. Only a small percentage of players, like myself, are interested in monitoring and maximizing their return to see how it accords with or beats the odds.

Colin Fairbrother 
   
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