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flexalong
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Quote flexalong Replybullet Topic: Advice needed for constructing full spectrum picks
    Posted: April 02 2009 at 5:54am
Hi Colin,
 
Currently I am trying to create 5 random full spectrum picks that have a good chance of winning the jackpot in the long run and am doing some research on the web.
 
I saw the following rules in a post of yours in RGL about winning probability grows proportionally with number of lines...

1.     Do not duplicate the subsets if they are paid on eg Threes

2.     Use all the integers in the Pool eg 45 or 49

3.     Maximize your coverage of the main possible winning
        combinations

There is a 4th which is a bit more subtle and a matter of preference
in determining the mix of your lower end prizes where you set
parameters for the extent of contiguous numerical order Twos or Threes
given you store your integers in numerical order.

 
I was hoping if you can elaborate further on point number 3 and 4.
 
Thanks
 
Flex
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Colin F
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: April 02 2009 at 9:02pm

Hi Flexalong

First, let's get a misapprehension out of the way. The first prize in say a Pick 6, Pool 49 Lotto game has 13,983,816 possibilities and as long as your lines are different one combination is as good as another as far as getting that for one draw - for a number of draws other considerations come into play.

In the very long run your chances of getting first prize are minuscule and your expectation should be not to win first prize. You may adopt a more realistic outlook, as I do, where you know you can't win first prize without buying a ticket, however high the unlikelihood and look to maximize your winnings in the lower tier prizes. This is equivalent to paying a small voluntary donation to the government to hopefully spend on good causes, all for the pleasure of participation.
 
I use Lotto as a focus for applying my programming skills and also mathematical knowledge and logic prowess in a recreational or hobbyist way much the same as others may do with creating computer games. I do play but only $11.00 or so - occasionally I may double that. Keep the brain ticking over and challenged and you will live longer!

I posted a test in these forums back in May, 2005  Best Coverage 8 Lines 6/49 Lotto and didn't get much of a response, which is normal. The maximized coverage in 8 lines in this case was for a Three prize considering all the 13,983,816 possibilities.

Nobody bothered to point out that I wasn't using one of the integers until I did eventually in a footnote. The point that should have come through is not to consider coverage in isolation when producing a set of numbers to give the best chance of any win..

The other valid point was that normally in 8 lines you would get repetition of your integers. The template being used had all integers different and as shown in contiguous numerical order CNO. This means if played in this order our set has subsets in a far greater proportion to that which occur in a number of draws. Even if randomized there is a tendency for the template to produce a set with too high a count of CNO Twos, Threes and even Fours.

Considering the combinations of two CNO integers first such as (1 2), (2 3), (3 4) etc there are 48 of these and in the 13,983,816 combinations of 6 integers presented in numerical order, as is usual in Lotto results, there are 7,165,169. So, for 8 lines we would expect half of these to have CNO Twos not all of them.

Considering the combinations of three CNO integers there are 47 of these. Querying shows 666,974 including the CNO Fours, Fives and Sixes in the 13,983,816 combinations of 6 integers or roughly 1 in 22. So in 8 lines none would be alright, 1 up to you but definitely not all the 8 lines.

Tests I have done show that excessively reducing CNO subsets may increase the count of your lowest prize but reduce the number of the next prize up. It's a matter of preference; I tend to go in the 18 lines I play in my local 6/45 game of a figure for the Twos of 8 just under the average of a bit over 9 for the number of lines played and no CNO Threes. In other words you should be close to the average expected for the number of lines played.

Regards
Colin Fairbrother

Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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Quote flexalong Replybullet Posted: April 03 2009 at 12:14am
Thanks for the long reply Colin.
 
Call me a fool but I want to believe I can win the jackpot in the long run. I have tried a few system and software, but it doesn't work and I finally realized I should stop wasting time creating combinations from software or system and just use 5 full spectrum picks to let it play out every draw. 
 
So about your CNO, are you saying that I should make sure the subsets of 3 in a set of full spectrum picks should not match any subset of 3 in another set of full spectrum picks in order to have an increased chance of hitting a higher tier prize?
 
I am playing a 6/52 lottery and minimum payout is 3 number win. I created 5 sets of full 6 x 9 spectrum picks using excel random function and replaced the additional 2 numbers with the top 2 ball number that has the most wins and tested it against the past 294 draws and found that out of 13 draws each month, 6 or 7 draws would have gotten me a 3 number hit. 
 
I also plan to replace the set of spectrum picks when one of the combinations hit a 4 numbers win since we know it will take very long for the combination of 4 number to be drawn again.
 
Hope to have more of your input.
 
Thanks
 
Flex
 
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: April 03 2009 at 1:09am
Flexalong
 
You must be from Illinois.
 
Since you are only playing 5 lines then you are only using 30 of the 52 integers. It doesn't matter which ones you use and especially what has occurred previously in any history is irrelevant. Prediction in Lotto is best left to tarot, bone or tea leave readers and their ilk.
 
Here are 6 numbers from my other site LottoToWin. If you win first prize then it's all down to Lady Luck; if you get a secondary prize then the lines had some input because they have no repeat Threes and consequently no repeat Fours or Fives.
 
06 19 24 32 35 42
12 17 26 29 47 48
15 31 33 36 40 51
05 10 14 22 25 27
03 09 11 23 37 41
02 30 34 43 49 52
 
Regards
Colin Fairbrother
Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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Quote flexalong Replybullet Posted: April 04 2009 at 12:03am
Thanks Colin, I am from Malaysia actually.
 
I am actually looking for 5 sets of 6 x 9 matrix, not 5 lines. I created one in excel maybe you can help me take a look and see if any improvement can be done according to your CNO concept.
 
6 24 26 34 40 45
5 8 14 15 20 48
1 2 4 23 31 42
3 7 25 27 37 38
13 16 19 33 39 47
11 18 29 35 41 46
9 12 21 36 44 51
5 17 22 43 49 50
10 17 28 30 32 52
2 4 18 19 35 43
8 24 26 45 47 49
14 15 17 29 31 32
5 20 21 30 33 44
9 12 37 50 51 52
5 10 27 39 42 48
13 17 22 23 36 46
1 3 11 16 40 41
6 7 25 28 34 38
3 8 20 23 29 43
24 27 28 37 38 44
10 12 15 16 32 36
5 18 25 30 31 45
6 7 9 13 21 26
11 14 40 41 46 52
5 17 19 34 39 48
2 4 35 42 47 51
1 17 22 33 49 50
6 13 28 40 41 44
3 14 17 18 20 39
4 12 21 31 38 43
19 25 30 45 46 49
1 2 32 42 50 52
7 9 11 24 34 47
5 16 17 35 36 48
10 15 22 23 27 37
5 8 26 29 33 51
13 21 22 23 38 50
3 4 27 32 47 49
2 9 18 19 37 45
14 17 24 29 41 52
12 28 34    36 39 40
6 11 15 33 35 48
5 7 20 25 44 46
5 10 16 17 30 31
1 8 26 42 43 51
 
I replaced the additional 2 numbers in each matrix with the top 2 most drawn numbers.
 
Thanks
 
Flex
 
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: April 04 2009 at 7:09pm
Flex
 
You are playing 45 lines in a Pick 6, Pool 52 Lotto game.
 
I would question your methodology in dividing your set into 5 sets each of 9 lines. The science in Lotto structured number sets is getting the whole set to most efficiently work towards your objective of winning a prize. Any contiguous dated draws in the Lotto game you are playing can be used as a structure guide; the idea is to tweak this structure.
 
The 45 lines you gave has only around 52% coverage of the 20,358.520 combinations of 6 integers from 52 possibilities at each draw. LottoToWin achieves 58% for the same number of lines.
 
Looking at your integer distribution 5 and 17 are repeated each 10 times and are obviously the integers you believe to have a bit of a run going on - the rest are repeated each 5 times.
 
Duplicate Threes is way too high for me at 25 and represent wasted chances.
 
Contiguous Numerical Order (CNO) Twos is about right at 27; I would prefer a lower figure. The 2 CNO Threes would be reason enough for me to do another selection on my template with a different integer random order.
 
Regards
Colin Fairbrother
 
ps I will correct my Lotto game configurations to show Malaysia as having the Malaysia Mega Toto 6/52 game.
Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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Quote flexalong Replybullet Posted: April 04 2009 at 11:49pm
Thanks for the advice , Colin. I will see what I can to do to lower repeated threes.
 
Flex
 
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Quote flexalong Replybullet Posted: June 08 2009 at 9:25pm
Hi Colin,
 
What do you think of the following combinations? Planning to bet on them every draw.
 
5 7 9 29 30 31
2 16 17 21 28 45
12 15 23 25 35 39
4 6 20 41 42 48
24 27 34 44 49 51
1 19 32 33 38 52
10 11 13 36 46 47
3 14 26 40 43 50
9 12 26 34 36 48
1 4 24 37 45 46
3 21 23 27 37 38
18 22 25 29 32 44
5 8 10 33 42 51
6 15 28 30 43 49
2 11 18 19 40 41
7 8 14 20 39 47
13 16 22 31 35 50
3 8 16 25 48 52
15 28 31 37 51 52
17 19 20 23 34 46
1 2 14 29 35 42
17 22 33 36 40 49
10 30 32 39 41 45
4 5 11 18 26 27
6 9 21 24 47 50
7 12 13 38 43 44
 
Thanks and regards,
Flex
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: June 09 2009 at 5:54am
Hi Flex
 
Looks pretty right to me. Eventually you reach a point where it is subjective to the user. There's not too many draws for your Lotto game with two CNO Twos in the draw number so I personally wouldn't  play a set that had 2 of them.
 
Hope you win a four or five soon.
 
Best of luck
Colin
Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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Quote flexalong Replybullet Posted: June 10 2009 at 5:19am

Thanks for the reply, Colin.

Do you mean that there is a pair that appeared twice in the set?

Flex
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