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 LottoPoster Forums : INTRODUCTION AND GENERAL LOTTO RELATED DISCUSSION : Questions, Answers, Information and Comments
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Colin F
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Topic: I dare you - predict 1 Lotto integer using history
    Posted: March 25 2008 at 8:18pm
The tools for measuring the occurrence of an integer from its Lotto history I produced around the year 2000 and involve the use of what I call hit/miss signatures. A signature can be of a length you determine - I found that no more than 30 were required to prove any point. At its simplest a signature could be MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM or abbreviated to M30. You could have a signature for just the last 10 draws such as MMMHMMMHMM. By sampling actual Lotto histories one can then establish which combinations of Signatures occur most often to produce a prize for the particular Lotto configuration. Note that I said "prize" as there is little point on focusing on 1 or 2 integers unless they win a prize. Below are 3 links to signature articles -
 
 
 
 
So called skips have been analyzed in this way by myself and found to be of no value whatsoever. The information is on this website and is known to those that advocate skip nonsense but is willfully ignored simply because that's what con-artists do.
 
Consider a 6/49 Lotto game where you play 1 or more lines of 6 distinct integers from a pool of 49. Your chances of getting one integer correct in the winning six from playing 1 line are calculated from -
 
49c6
6c1 x 43c5
 
13,983,816   =  2.42
6 x 962,598              
 
So, roughly every 5 draws you will get 2 integers correct from simply playing a 6 integer 1 line random selection. This does not preclude you from playing 1 line per draw for 50 draws and getting nothing or having a run of a win per draw for 50 draws - both unlikely but not impossible. 
 
Operators of a 6/49 Lotto game do not pay on getting 1 integer correct - usually, you need to get at least 3 right in a line. However, from the probability calculation if $1 were charged per line then from an average $5.00 spent (or 5 lines) you should get $5.00 back from 2 wins at payouts 2.5 to 1. Naturally, this is unprofitable to an operator so let's work with 90% return or payouts 2.18 to 1. This means on average you should get $9 back for $10 spent.
 
You would be certain of a win by playing 9 lines and pretty safe with just 8 as in the following _
 
01 02 03 04 05 06
07 08 09 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36
37 38 39 40 41 42
43 44 45 46 47 48
 
At payouts 2.18 to 1 or 90% return then _
  • 1 win or 1 integer correct in 8 lines played would see you down by $5.82.
    .
  • 2 Wins or 2 integers correct in 8 lines played - still down by $3.64.
    .
  • 3 Wins or 3 integers correct in 8 lines played which is close to that expected from our probability calculation - still down $1.46.
    .
  • If you get 4 correct then you would be ahead by 72¢.
    .
  • If you get 8 correct you would be ahead by $9.44.
    .
  • It's possible though for you to get 6 integers correct in all your 8 lines by simply playing the same line giving you $104.64 a 1308% return or $96.64 in front. The odds are 1 in 13,983,816 and even if you play 2 million lines of the same number your odds still remain the same!
 
There is a principle here that should be kept in mind when playing your standard jackpot Lotto game. The more you concentrate the subsets you play in Lotto the greater the possible return but the less likely you are to get a win. 
 
So, history people show me how you can do it better than what the odds say will occur or what random selections will deliver. Will you do better than playing 8 lines with 48 integers and relying on multiple integer appearances in your lines? As I've said before if you can't make it work in the simplest case how do you expect something better with astronomical odds against you? I wait with bated breath.
 
Regards
Colin Fairbrother 
Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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