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Playing Lotto Pick 3 at State 500:1 or Online 900:1 Payouts
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Colin F
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Quote Colin F Replybullet Topic: The Death of Pick 3 Digit Analysis
    Posted: July 08 2006 at 12:32am

DEATH OF PICK 3 DIGIT ANALYSIS
by Colin Fairbrother

The irrefutable and over-riding fact is that you can run a Lotto Pick 3 Game without any need to consider the identifying digits in isolation. They are only important as part of the 1,000 permutations (ordered sets) each of which uses 3 of the 10 distinguisable marks or objects with or without repetition. The marks don't have to be integers they could just as easily be dog species, shapes or colors. The starting point is not a set of 3,000 isolated objects from which a random selection is made but the set of 1,000 permutations of 3 linked objects formed from 10 distinct objects; 2,160 for the Unmatched, 810 for the Doubles and 30 for the triples. Study of digit occurrence isolated from the Triple, Double or Unmatched of which it is part is to ignore the order of the digits and is therefore seriously flawed.  

A single digit does not win a prize in Pick 3. Two digits do not win a prize in Pick 3. A 3 digit number can win a prize in Pick 3 in the correct order if playing straight or in any order if playing boxed. For too long the emphasis has been on a working out the digits approach. This does not work in Jackpot style Lotto games and neither does it work in Pick 3. Consider the following food for thought -

  • I think we can generally agree that for the next draw in any Pick 3 game we do not know for certain whether it will be an Unmatched, Double or Triple. More than 6 Doubles have occurred consecutively - so even waiting patiently for 3 or 4 Doubles in a row we are always faced with the possibility of another 3 or more doubles in a row which would make progressively increasing the bet size not always the solution and may compound your losses. So, is there any difference in just taking pot luck? 
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  • For those of you that do digit analysis assume the impossible - that is that you know one of the digits in the next draw. Even though you "know" this there are still 271 possibilities! If you restricted yourself to 70% of these numbers you are still looking at some 190 combinations! Surely, then, if this is attractive to you, then 120 combinations with a 70% chance of success is too!
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  • The chances of success for one number played straight in Pick 3 is 0.1%. If your calculations on which digits will be in the next winning number lead you to a particular number then, even though you may have convinced yourself that you are 100% correct in determining the position of each digit, you still end up with 1 of a 1,000 numbers and what flows down does not necessarily flow up. By that I mean simply determining whether the next number will be a triple, double or unmatched gives you a winning edge - INDEED DETERMINING JUST ONE OF THESE IS SUFFICIENT. Determining the digits in the next number with a given impossibly high degree of certainty, in isolation to the actual number, still gives you as many as 657 possibilities - your chances of a net return success will never be more than playing 899 numbers straight at 25c to net 25c if successful on line! Let me emphasize that - if from the 1,000 numbers you can eliminate 10.1% you have a profitable system - all you need to do is increase the bet size. Play at $1.00 per number straight and you outlay $899 to net $1 online. However, if you lose once you need over 899 successes to make up for it. So, you could go merrily along with 898 successes and the next miss puts you back to square one.
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  •  Consider a penny where instead of the probability of a head or tail being .5 or 50/50 the head side has a weight embedded in it such that there is a bias of .22. So the probability of a heads coming up is .72 or 72% and that of a tail .28 or 28%. Consider further that someone offers you a payout of 1.25 to 1 on you getting the heads at $1 a throw. So, if you win you get $1.25 less your $1 for a net of 25c. Well, if this is OK to you at $1 what about at 30 times that ie you bet $30 to get $37.50 for a net of $7.50. This, as you no doubt have realized is the same as betting the 120 Unmatched at 25c.  Why bother with all the mumbo jumbo digit analysis?
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  • In the next draw we know it will be an Unmatched, Double or Triple. The next logical step is to determine which number from the 120 base Unmatched or 90 Doubles or 10 Triples it is more likely to be. It is not logical to be trying to determine the more complex digits in the next number when you have not mastered simply determining whether it will be an Unmatched or a Non-Unmatched!
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  • There's no difference between choosing randomly an integer between 0 and 9 for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd position in Pick 3 and that of a 1 stage process of randomly choosing 1 of the 1,000 3 digit permutations of the integers 0 to 9 marked on say, balls, from a container. In fact you could go further with a 2 stage process of putting 72 balls in a container each containing 10 Unmatched along with 27 balls each containing 10 Doubles and 1 ball containing 10 triples. First random selection will determine whether it is an Unmatched, Double or Triple; the second random selection will determine which from the 10 available it is. You really don't need to know about the random process as long as each of the 1,000 three digit numbers has an equal opportunity to be selected at each draw.

Regards
Colin  

Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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Colin F
Lotto Systems Tester Creator & Analyst
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To dream the impossible dream ...

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Quote Colin F Replybullet Posted: September 01 2006 at 10:25pm

Here is a 50 draw Pick 3 history sample analyzed by digits: -

       Digit:  0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9
Digit Count: 18 14 14 13 14 18 13 16 12 17








Double: 00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99
Double Count: 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 5

A quick perusal shows that a high relative digit count does not mean consistently a high double count. The highest digit count produced just the average double count.

Let's look at the doubles. The 50 draw sample I am using here has an unusually high number of Doubles - 38% instead of the expected 27%.

      Double:  00  11  22  33  44  55  66  77  88  99
1st 10 Draws: - - 1 - - - - - - -
2nd 10 Draws: 1 - - - - - 1 1 - -
3rd 10 Draws: - - - 1 - - - 1 - 1
4th 10 Draws: - 1 1 - - 1 - - - 3
5th 10 Draws: 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1

The 5th group has an unusually high number of Doubles - 70% instead of the expected 27%. The question you should ask yourself is, "What can I see in this unusual but actual (Texas) example that I can use again?"

I am interested to see the interpretations from this. Any inference should be treated with caution because of the very high incidence of Doubles in the last group. Is it no Double after 40 draws is a good bet for the next 10 draws? At State payouts this would mean for your selected Double forking out 10 x 10 x 0.50 = $50 for a possible win of $80 or at 5 Dimes 10 x 10 x 0.25 = $20 for a possible win of $150. But hey, haven't we gone from digit analysis to considering the whole numbers, occurrence and absence?

Regards
Colin

Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another; the integers serve just as identifiers. Any prediction calculation on one history of draws for a same type game is just as irrelevant as another.
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