Here is a 50 draw Pick 3 history sample analyzed by digits: -
Digit: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Digit Count: 18 14 14 13 14 18 13 16 12 17
Double: 00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99
Double Count: 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 5
A quick perusal shows that a high relative digit count does not mean consistently a high double count. The highest digit count produced just the average double count.
Let's look at the doubles. The 50 draw sample I am using here has an unusually high number of Doubles - 38% instead of the expected 27%.
Double: 00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99
1st 10 Draws: - - 1 - - - - - - -
2nd 10 Draws: 1 - - - - - 1 1 - -
3rd 10 Draws: - - - 1 - - - 1 - 1
4th 10 Draws: - 1 1 - - 1 - - - 3
5th 10 Draws: 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1
The 5th group has an unusually high number of Doubles - 70% instead of the expected 27%. The question you should ask yourself is, "What can I see in this unusual but actual (Texas) example that I can use again?"
I am interested to see the interpretations from this. Any inference should be treated with caution because of the very high incidence of Doubles in the last group. Is it no Double after 40 draws is a good bet for the next 10 draws? At State payouts this would mean for your selected Double forking out 10 x 10 x 0.50 = $50 for a possible win of $80 or at 5 Dimes 10 x 10 x 0.25 = $20 for a possible win of $150. But hey, haven't we gone from digit analysis to considering the whole numbers, occurrence and absence?
Regards
Colin
To put the nail in the coffin for the followers of followers here are the Top 12 boxed for All States ie 138,769 Draws. Divide 138,769 by the top count of 18 and you get 1 in 7,709 - not much different to going for a Straight.
Base3 | FollowerBase | Cnt |
049 | 258 | 18 |
128 | 567 | 17 |
359 | 789 | 15 |
279 | 168 | 15 |
357 | 478 | 14 |
289 | 258 | 14 |
256 | 058 | 14 |
169 | 379 | 14 |
148 | 035 | 14 |
125 | 178 | 14 |
025 | 238 | 14 |
023 | 129 | 14 |
And here are the top 177 by State:
State | Base3 | FollowerBase | Cnt |
USANM3 | 179 | 479 | 4 |
USATS3 | 126 | 457 | 4 |
USAFl3 | 236 | 135 | 4 |
USAMn3 | 249 | 015 | 4 |
USAFl3 | 059 | 459 | 3 |
USAFl3 | 359 | 789 | 3 |
USAFl3 | 357 | 068 | 3 |
USAFl3 | 279 | 679 | 3 |
USAFl3 | 189 | 789 | 3 |
USAFl3 | 148 | 256 | 3 |
USAKy3 | 128 | 134 | 3 |
USAFl3 | 068 | 158 | 3 |
USAGa3 | 123 | 025 | 3 |
USADeMD3 | 179 | 499 | 3 |
USADeMD3 | 078 | 349 | 3 |
USADeMD3 | 012 | 057 | 3 |
USADe3 | 622 | 459 | 3 |
USADe3 | 148 | 568 | 3 |
USADe3 | 137 | 299 | 3 |
USADe3 | 124 | 689 | 3 |
USADe3 | 045 | 125 | 3 |
USAFl3 | 129 | 468 | 3 |
USAIn3 | 155 | 127 | 3 |
USAKy3 | 058 | 411 | 3 |
USAKy3 | 035 | 468 | 3 |
USAKs3 | 245 | 037 | 3 |
USAKs3 | 189 | 067 | 3 |
USAKs3 | 134 | 467 | 3 |
USAKs3 | 057 | 156 | 3 |
USAInMD3 | 589 | 023 | 3 |
USAIn3 | 689 | 237 | 3 |
USAIn3 | 644 | 245 | 3 |
USAGa3 | 034 | 139 | 3 |
USAIn3 | 237 | 269 | 3 |
USAGa3 | 036 | 679 | 3 |
USAIn3 | 135 | 078 | 3 |
USAIn3 | 037 | 237 | 3 |
USAId3 | 679 | 357 | 3 |
USAIa3 | 234 | 458 | 3 |
USAGaMD3 | 479 | 124 | 3 |
USAGaMD3 | 167 | 128 | 3 |
USAGa3 | 456 | 159 | 3 |
USAGa3 | 369 | 579 | 3 |
USADC3 | 568 | 035 | 3 |
USAIn3 | 356 | 147 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 134 | 478 | 3 |
USACa3 | 145 | 356 | 3 |
USACa3 | 038 | 137 | 3 |
USAAz3 | 356 | 589 | 3 |
USAAz3 | 128 | 359 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 389 | 148 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 357 | 369 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 348 | 358 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 322 | 017 | 3 |
USADCMD3 | 345 | 247 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 157 | 358 | 3 |
USACa3 | 469 | 248 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 039 | 039 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 038 | 389 | 3 |
CanQu3 | 345 | 089 | 3 |
CanQu3 | 248 | 048 | 3 |
CanQu3 | 045 | 800 | 3 |
CanOnt3 | 579 | 267 | 3 |
CanOnt3 | 578 | 035 | 3 |
CanOnt3 | 478 | 028 | 3 |
CanOnt3 | 135 | 347 | 3 |
CanWst3 | 236 | 479 | 3 |
USACt3 | 677 | 068 | 3 |
USAKyMD3 | 457 | 148 | 3 |
USADC3 | 478 | 128 | 3 |
USADC3 | 455 | 456 | 3 |
USADC3 | 345 | 037 | 3 |
USADC3 | 136 | 145 | 3 |
USADC3 | 134 | 068 | 3 |
USADC3 | 123 | 025 | 3 |
USADC3 | 078 | 257 | 3 |
USADC3 | 037 | 689 | 3 |
USACa3 | 235 | 078 | 3 |
USACt3 | 679 | 256 | 3 |
USACa3 | 456 | 236 | 3 |
USACt3 | 569 | 015 | 3 |
USACt3 | 358 | 239 | 3 |
USACt3 | 239 | 068 | 3 |
USACt3 | 168 | 247 | 3 |
USACt3 | 057 | 577 | 3 |
USACt3 | 049 | 029 | 3 |
USACt3 | 025 | 168 | 3 |
USACt3 | 015 | 358 | 3 |
USADCMD3 | 144 | 479 | 3 |
USADC3 | 036 | 257 | 3 |
USAPa3 | 028 | 012 | 3 |
USATx3 | 124 | 137 | 3 |
USATS3 | 689 | 345 | 3 |
USATS3 | 489 | 066 | 3 |
USATS3 | 378 | 245 | 3 |
USATS3 | 059 | 249 | 3 |
USATS3 | 035 | 056 | 3 |
USATS3 | 017 | 038 | 3 |
USASC3 | 345 | 469 | 3 |
USAKy3 | 156 | 049 | 3 |
USAPa3 | 036 | 014 | 3 |
USAVa3 | 078 | 017 | 3 |
USAOhMD3 | 025 | 123 | 3 |
USAOh3 | 977 | 139 | 3 |
USAOh3 | 478 | 266 | 3 |
USAOh3 | 459 | 168 | 3 |
USAOh3 | 128 | 146 | 3 |
USAOh3 | 124 | 279 | 3 |
USAOh3 | 026 | 078 | 3 |
USAOh3 | 024 | 468 | 3 |
USAPa3 | 267 | 248 | 3 |
USAWa3 | 234 | 234 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 789 | 349 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 567 | 148 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 479 | 259 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 400 | 246 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 377 | 155 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 249 | 369 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 189 | 136 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 028 | 456 | 3 |
USATx3 | 124 | 256 | 3 |
USAWa3 | 245 | 346 | 3 |
USATx3 | 977 | 237 | 3 |
USAWa3 | 078 | 015 | 3 |
USAVaMD3 | 125 | 047 | 3 |
USAVaMD3 | 028 | 057 | 3 |
USAVaMD3 | 012 | 469 | 3 |
USAVa3 | 346 | 126 | 3 |
USAVa3 | 278 | 899 | 3 |
USAVa3 | 278 | 789 | 3 |
USAVa3 | 234 | 236 | 3 |
USANY3 | 045 | 345 | 3 |
USAWi3 | 014 | 089 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 069 | 267 | 3 |
USANY3 | 478 | 238 | 3 |
USAMi3 | 025 | 028 | 3 |
USAMdMD3 | 349 | 345 | 3 |
USAMdMD3 | 167 | 458 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 569 | 279 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 568 | 148 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 367 | 178 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 289 | 569 | 3 |
USAMi3 | 267 | 056 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 139 | 566 | 3 |
USAMiMD3 | 023 | 125 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 027 | 567 | 3 |
USALa3 | 489 | 024 | 3 |
USALa3 | 468 | 789 | 3 |
USALa3 | 058 | 148 | 3 |
USALa3 | 036 | 489 | 3 |
USALa3 | 035 | 156 | 3 |
USALa3 | 018 | 039 | 3 |
USAWV3 | 457 | 012 | 3 |
USAKyMD3 | 289 | 800 | 3 |
USAMd3 | 147 | 468 | 3 |
USAMo3 | 036 | 139 | 3 |
CanOnt3 | 012 | 689 | 3 |
USANM3 | 579 | 655 | 3 |
USANjMD3 | 359 | 056 | 3 |
USANj3 | 478 | 012 | 3 |
USANj3 | 457 | 379 | 3 |
USANj3 | 123 | 135 | 3 |
USANj3 | 026 | 157 | 3 |
USAMo3 | 358 | 459 | 3 |
USAMi3 | 036 | 468 | 3 |
USAMo3 | 059 | 356 | 3 |
USANY3 | 200 | 238 | 3 |
USAMn3 | 755 | 822 | 3 |
USAMn3 | 489 | 844 | 3 |
USAMn3 | 369 | 367 | 3 |
USAMn3 | 349 | 149 | 3 |
USAMn3 | 179 | 011 | 3 |
USAMn3 | 147 | 356 | 3 |
USAMiMD3 | 358 | 611 | 3 |
USAMiMD3 | 236 | 057 | 3 |
USAMiMD3 | 067 | 259 | 3 |
USAMo3 | 268 | 600 | 3 |
Regards
Colin
ps I'll be interested to know how these correlate with Her Majesties workouts!
]]>The response overwhelmed me ...
For All States Straights here are the Top 12 from 138,769 Draws: -
Perm3 | Follower | Cnt |
763 | 299 | 5 |
949 | 043 | 4 |
915 | 224 | 4 |
754 | 112 | 4 |
728 | 522 | 4 |
634 | 822 | 4 |
548 | 546 | 4 |
481 | 065 | 4 |
474 | 343 | 4 |
317 | 378 | 4 |
102 | 078 | 4 |
064 | 298 | 4 |
A motley bunch when we break it up into States:
State | Perm3 | Follower | Cnt |
USAIa3 | 375 | 947 | 2 |
USAKy3 | 134 | 362 | 2 |
USAKs3 | 866 | 939 | 2 |
USAKs3 | 509 | 509 | 2 |
USAKs3 | 379 | 972 | 2 |
USAKs3 | 075 | 156 | 2 |
USAIn3 | 705 | 361 | 2 |
USAId3 | 056 | 649 | 2 |
USAIa3 | 902 | 364 | 2 |
USAFl3 | 045 | 431 | 2 |
USAIa3 | 377 | 322 | 2 |
USAKy3 | 535 | 080 | 2 |
USAIa3 | 337 | 817 | 2 |
USAIa3 | 095 | 606 | 2 |
USAGaMD3 | 870 | 888 | 2 |
USAGaMD3 | 761 | 812 | 2 |
USAGa3 | 987 | 985 | 2 |
USAGa3 | 884 | 698 | 2 |
USAGa3 | 370 | 221 | 2 |
USAFl3 | 701 | 805 | 2 |
USAMi3 | 836 | 550 | 2 |
USAIa3 | 604 | 686 | 2 |
USALa3 | 733 | 228 | 2 |
CanOnt3 | 240 | 575 | 2 |
USAMi3 | 384 | 489 | 2 |
USAMi3 | 317 | 740 | 2 |
USAMi3 | 015 | 233 | 2 |
USAMdMD3 | 893 | 795 | 2 |
USAMdMD3 | 705 | 767 | 2 |
USAMdMD3 | 617 | 584 | 2 |
USAMd3 | 430 | 408 | 2 |
USAMd3 | 204 | 035 | 2 |
USAKy3 | 243 | 515 | 2 |
USALa3 | 967 | 437 | 2 |
USAKy3 | 350 | 486 | 2 |
USALa3 | 580 | 841 | 2 |
USALa3 | 575 | 382 | 2 |
USALa3 | 128 | 768 | 2 |
USALa3 | 045 | 505 | 2 |
USAKyMD3 | 433 | 830 | 2 |
USAKyMD3 | 088 | 175 | 2 |
USAKy3 | 870 | 275 | 2 |
USAKy3 | 577 | 644 | 2 |
USADeMD3 | 650 | 757 | 2 |
USALa3 | 986 | 547 | 2 |
CanWst3 | 401 | 384 | 2 |
USADC3 | 368 | 418 | 2 |
USACt3 | 619 | 676 | 2 |
USACt3 | 514 | 628 | 2 |
USACt3 | 242 | 025 | 2 |
USACt3 | 116 | 178 | 2 |
USACaMD3 | 238 | 521 | 2 |
CanWst3 | 835 | 679 | 2 |
CanWst3 | 773 | 690 | 2 |
USAFl3 | 135 | 892 | 2 |
CanWst3 | 505 | 632 | 2 |
USADC3 | 991 | 442 | 2 |
CanWst3 | 219 | 977 | 2 |
CanWst3 | 135 | 366 | 2 |
CanQu3 | 996 | 312 | 2 |
CanQu3 | 920 | 582 | 2 |
CanQu3 | 905 | 370 | 2 |
CanQu3 | 754 | 112 | 2 |
CanQu3 | 628 | 966 | 2 |
CanOnt3 | 595 | 896 | 2 |
CanOnt3 | 477 | 434 | 2 |
CanWst3 | 727 | 419 | 2 |
USADe3 | 367 | 481 | 2 |
USADeMD3 | 483 | 654 | 2 |
USADeMD3 | 298 | 710 | 2 |
USADeMD3 | 241 | 649 | 2 |
USADe3 | 953 | 491 | 2 |
USADe3 | 881 | 096 | 2 |
USADe3 | 788 | 400 | 2 |
USADe3 | 713 | 929 | 2 |
USADe3 | 634 | 822 | 2 |
USADe3 | 461 | 678 | 2 |
USADC3 | 730 | 698 | 2 |
USADe3 | 421 | 689 | 2 |
USADC3 | 812 | 168 | 2 |
USADe3 | 180 | 636 | 2 |
USADe3 | 114 | 726 | 2 |
USADCMD3 | 949 | 043 | 2 |
USADCMD3 | 754 | 280 | 2 |
USADCMD3 | 745 | 316 | 2 |
USADCMD3 | 526 | 551 | 2 |
USADCMD3 | 227 | 554 | 2 |
USADCMD3 | 042 | 525 | 2 |
USAMiMD3 | 061 | 321 | 2 |
USADe3 | 450 | 671 | 2 |
USATx3 | 030 | 491 | 2 |
USAVa3 | 234 | 623 | 2 |
USATx3 | 883 | 291 | 2 |
USATx3 | 516 | 163 | 2 |
USATx3 | 515 | 595 | 2 |
USATx3 | 478 | 792 | 2 |
USATx3 | 306 | 491 | 2 |
USATx3 | 300 | 873 | 2 |
USATx3 | 231 | 515 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 920 | 808 | 2 |
USATx3 | 051 | 601 | 2 |
USAVa3 | 760 | 156 | 2 |
USATSMD3 | 528 | 518 | 2 |
USATSMD3 | 477 | 352 | 2 |
USATS3 | 622 | 581 | 2 |
USATS3 | 527 | 309 | 2 |
USATS3 | 508 | 867 | 2 |
USATS3 | 309 | 171 | 2 |
USATS3 | 046 | 554 | 2 |
USASC3 | 331 | 695 | 2 |
USAMi3 | 502 | 137 | 2 |
USATx3 | 205 | 629 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 614 | 161 | 2 |
USAWV3 | 457 | 021 | 2 |
USAWi3 | 794 | 529 | 2 |
USAWi3 | 650 | 259 | 2 |
USAWi3 | 550 | 890 | 2 |
USAWi3 | 523 | 915 | 2 |
USAWi3 | 306 | 760 | 2 |
USAWi3 | 188 | 882 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 881 | 695 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 869 | 115 | 2 |
USAVa3 | 246 | 101 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 656 | 223 | 2 |
USAVa3 | 373 | 027 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 523 | 172 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 479 | 608 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 272 | 843 | 2 |
USAVaMD3 | 902 | 448 | 2 |
USAVaMD3 | 704 | 127 | 2 |
USAVaMD3 | 580 | 706 | 2 |
USAVaMD3 | 217 | 670 | 2 |
USAVa3 | 832 | 819 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 637 | 595 | 2 |
USAWa3 | 797 | 764 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 235 | 867 | 2 |
USANj3 | 485 | 691 | 2 |
USANj3 | 452 | 912 | 2 |
USANj3 | 311 | 793 | 2 |
USANj3 | 262 | 397 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 870 | 563 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 808 | 287 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 763 | 954 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 438 | 704 | 2 |
USAPaMD3 | 713 | 028 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 379 | 434 | 2 |
USANj3 | 981 | 595 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 099 | 022 | 2 |
USAMn3 | 984 | 670 | 2 |
USAMn3 | 896 | 896 | 2 |
USAMn3 | 742 | 753 | 2 |
USAMn3 | 590 | 134 | 2 |
USAMn3 | 557 | 822 | 2 |
USAMn3 | 085 | 447 | 2 |
USAMiMD3 | 632 | 570 | 2 |
USAMiMD3 | 440 | 336 | 2 |
USAMo3 | 428 | 841 | 2 |
USAOh3 | 359 | 130 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 630 | 541 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 588 | 886 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 415 | 330 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 411 | 618 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 280 | 171 | 2 |
USAPa3 | 223 | 341 | 2 |
USAOhMD3 | 964 | 909 | 2 |
USAOhMD3 | 335 | 889 | 2 |
USAOh3 | 945 | 618 | 2 |
USANj3 | 855 | 314 | 2 |
USAOh3 | 862 | 406 | 2 |
USANj3 | 976 | 434 | 2 |
USAOh3 | 237 | 555 | 2 |
USANYMD3 | 841 | 431 | 2 |
USANY3 | 391 | 107 | 2 |
USANY3 | 369 | 405 | 2 |
USANM3 | 971 | 479 | 2 |
USANM3 | 915 | 908 | 2 |
USANjMD3 | 696 | 589 | 2 |
USANjMD3 | 603 | 769 | 2 |
USAWV3 | 911 | 770 | 2 |
USAOh3 | 909 | 174 | 2 |
As you can see the count is not high for All States. For a particular State there are only a few that have occurred more than once. Surely, this must make you wonder about those "royalty" claims!
Regards
Colin
ps Ks 509 to 509 ignore. This is the infamous cockup where the stored results were used twice in the following draws - nothing to do with the RNG - a lot to do with incompetent programming and administration.
]]>
I was intrigued to know in reference to a little project I'm working on how easy is it for someone with the know how to pin point a Pick 3 Lotto History simply by 2 or 3 contiguous draw results. In effect one is working out the followers for a number. Let's confine ourselves to straights for the time being.
There are a number of different ways of doing this as is often the case in programming. I did it my signature way - looping through the various State Games but also did it by self joins.
Currently, it only takes 3 draws to become distinct. So, you give me a draw result and the previous two draws in order and I will tell you in 2 seconds which State Draw it is.
Poor LotteryQueen if only she knew how wrong she is. Actually. for those who follow her if she is in anyway reflecting the true situation as far as followers then she is giving you numbers that will under perform QuickPicks as far as each State game is concerned. I give this information not so much to have a go at her but rather to adhere to what I say in my introduction - to warn against under performing methods.
So full kudos for the maestro to give me the top 12 ranking followers covering any State Pick 3 game. We'll see how they compare to mine.
You're judged by what you produce on this site not by the extent of your idiocy, crackpotness or other weirdo tendencies. Having a go at the State Lottery Operators for messing up the sequence of numbers by testing the machines - that my friends is about as flaky as flaky can be - but only on the LotteryJoke Forum. It's like saying that tossing the coin prior to the match has upset the sequence and it shouldn't count. Tell that to the umpire. Weird, weird, weird!
Regards
Colin
]]>
What Follows an Unmatched, Double or Triple in Pick 3
by Colin Fairbrother
Unmatched, Double or Triple Following | |||||
Copyright 2006 Colin Fairbrother www.lottoposter.com | |||||
136,753 Draws from North American Pick 3 Lotto Games | |||||
U = Unmatched (All digits different); D = Double (2 Digits the same); T = Triple | |||||
Signature | Sig Count | Sig % of Draws | Category Count | Category % of Draws | % Expected |
UU | 70,135 | 51.580 | 98,163 | 71.78 | 72 |
UD | 26,592 | 19.445 | |||
UT | 1,036 | 0.757 | |||
DU | 26,590 | 19.444 | 37,170 | 27.18 | 27 |
DD | 10,205 | 7.462 | |||
DT | 375 | 0.274 | |||
TU | 1,034 | 0.756 | 1,420 | 1.04 | 1 |
TD | 376 | 0.275 | |||
TT | 10 | 0.007 | |||
Totals | 136,753 | 100 | 136,753 | 100 | 100 |
This table should be looked at in conjunction with my post Chances of Success after Consecutive Unmatched or Doubles.
From this table we see that
The above results are factual and scientific - that is, anybody can replicate these results with the requisite database and programming know how.
When will the thick-heads and Lotto troglodytes come to their senses and accept reality?
Long live logic, common sense, open mindedness and intelligence.
Isn't it ironic that even given the first coming has occurred, the second coming is more likely to be discerned by a Free Thinker, a group of people loosely bound together by their not being bound by a rigid system of beliefs and of which I am proud to say I belong.
Regards
Colin
]]>
For those who insist on throwing their money away by playing Pick 3 at State payouts here is the relevant table. Ask yourself this question - you are playing a slot or poker machine with 50c which is regularly paying and alongside you is someone playing an identical machine at 25c per play. For 170 plays you both get identical wins but the 25c machine pays out $75 for the $42.50 spent while yours pays out $80.00 for $85.00 spent. The other person is in front by $32.50 while you are behind by $5.00. Can you honestly say that given the option you would continue to play the 50c machine? I suggest you do yourself a favor and for Pick 3 play online.
Compare the reds between the tables and you should need no further persuasion to play Pick 3 online.
Regards
Colin
Toss an unbiased coin a large number of times and note what follows after say, 9 heads up. You will find that as expected given there are only two possibilities that what follows is 50% heads. This is what probability theory teaches us and what applies to a simple coin also applies to Lotto.
The Pick 3 or Cash 3 Lotto game has 1,000 3 digit number possibilities each of which can be played straight which can be divided into 3 basic sub sets. There are 10 Triples where all the digits are the same such as 000 or 999 and which can only be played straight - your chances of getting one of these is 10/1000 x 100 = 1%. There are 270 Doubles where only two of the digits are the same such as 011 or 900 - your chances of getting one of these is 270/1000 x 100 = 27%. There are 720 Unmatched where all the digits are different such as 012 or 789 - your chances of getting one of these is 720/1000 x 100 = 72%.
So, if we have 10 Unmatched or 4 Doubles drawn consecutively is it more likely that the converse will occur on the next draw? Intuitively we tend to think that after a long run of Unmatched that it is more likely a Double will occur - the reality is that what follows is in accordance with the odds. After 1 Unmatched or 19 Unmatched consecutively you will get 72% of the time another Unmatched, 27% a Double and 1% of the time a Triple. Positively speaking you will find if you are considering a number of State Games that as the consecutive Unmatched or Doubles increase your choice of State is narrowed so you can use this as an alternative to a random State Game selection.
Now, I realize that the people who study the numbers in Lotto are in the main an extremely hard bunch to convince on anything rational - bizare is easily accepted! If you have read just a little of what I have written you will realize that I am not fazed by that and treat it as a challenge to convince the unconvinceable. One can learn new things oneself from this, as pushing yourself to the limit to explain things in the simplest way can open new frontiers.
To convince you I call upon the same mechanism I used with Jackpot lotteries - Signatures. In this case I shall use Signatures of a length 20. So if we have a draw with an Unmatched as the winning number and the previous draw was a Double and the previous 18 draws were Unmatched this is denoted as UDUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU. In a short hand way we can use UD18U. So we can cycle through all the 54 State Games and draws (the code is not difficult for a Relational Database person as in yours truly and only takes a few seconds to run) and come up with some 136,753 Signatures to play around with.
Using the Pick 3 Signatures we are able to determine what followed 19 (or a lesser number) Unmatched. As shown in the graph below where we have considered from 1 to 19 consecutive Unmatched the resulting win whether it be an Unmatched, Double or Triple is consistent with the odds, that is 1% for Triples, 27% for Doubles and 72% for Unmatched. In other words whether it be 1 or 19 consecutive Unmatched the following win will be in accordance with the odds.
Moreover, from the 136,753 Signatures irrespective of the 90,309 group configurations the resultant percentage of wins follows the odds - namely, 72% Unmatched, 27% Doubles and 1% Triples.
Regards
Colin Fairbrother
fairbros@bigpond.com
ps I am quite proud of this article as for the first time it provides proof that the increased absence of a number in Lotto does not ensure that it will fall in any other way other than what the odds determine. Some would argue this has to be so logically - to that I say convincing the "pundits" in Lotto requires more detail.
There are plenty in this field who are incapable of logical thought but for those who can I'm sure this has been a severe blow to the processes they have used. The next step is convincing them that digit position analysis achieves nothing other than weirdly constructing a number whose chances of success are determined by its entirety.
]]>Looking at the 5 Draw Stats for the 54 State Games where the 4 Draws before the last have been Doubles I see there are 838 that qualify. Of these 210 or 25.05% have resulted in another Double and 628 or 74.94% in the desired Unmatched. While this is some 3% above the odds it is not enough to be profitable at a 93.67% return.
Here is a quick summary from the detailed Stats I have calculated: -
State Games with qualifying Signatures: 48
Highest Percentage Return: 119.57%
Lowest Percentage Return: 53.57%
Average Percentage Return: 93.67%
Greater than 100% Return: 19
Around 98%: 2
Around 94%: 5
Around 90 - 91%: 3
Around 85 - 88%: 7
Around 83%: 4
Around 80%: 4
Around 67 - 71%: 3
Lowest 54%: 1
So, of the two - that is playing all Doubles after 10 Unmatched consecutively or all Unmatched after 4 Doubles there is not much between them both giving overall about a 94% return but the doubles requiring less outlay at $22.50 than the Unmatched at $30. Some of you may note that this is not based on surmising or conjecture but on calculated facts!
Overall the odds dominate but playing a large block of numbers such as all the Unmatched it is possible to make a profit if: -
Regards
Colin
For Monday, July 17th, 2006 Iowa/Illinois has 10 consecutive Unmatched so we're betting all Doubles costing $22.50.
***********************************************
Well, Iowa/Illinois got another Unmatched, 751, so we lost again.
Stake: $150.00
Bets: $127.50
Won: $ 75.00
Net: -$52.50
Cum Bets: $150.00
Cum Won: $150.00
Cum Net: $ 0.00
Balance: $150.00
For those that are familiar with my work in Jackpot style lotteries where I test programmatically multi-state and over a large number of draws you would be excused for wondering why I am fiddling around with these small manual sample results. Well, I haven't stopped doing large sample testing. It's just that I don't want to be the complete party pooper for Pick 3 which gives a lot of people good mental stimulation and entertainment even though their methodology has little or no substance.
However, playing all Pick 3 Doubles is not cheap at $22.50 for 25c plays and I don't want to be accused of leading you up the garden path using this method of playing All Doubles when there is 10 consecutive Unmatched. While I have full details with ratios etc, here's a quick summary of % returns for 53 State Games. (Tennessee Midday has yet to get one occurrence in some 136 draws.)
Slight Profit State Games: 21
Around 99%: 3
96 to 97%: 2
90 to 94%: 8
85 to 89%: 8
81 to 85%: 5
Around 70%: 3
Lowest - 60%: 1
Better than odds of 90%: 34 out of 53
Average All State Games: 94.07%
Overall the odds dominate but playing a large block of numbers such as all the Doubles it is possible to make a profit if: -
Regards
Colin
Both Arizona and Florida have 10 consecutive Unmatched. It will cost $22.50 each at 25c per play to play all the Doubles. If an Unmatched comes in we stand to lose $45.00. However, if we bet all the Unmatched as well we stand to lose a lesser amount of $30.00 - so we might as well do that for an outlay of $105.00. If we get two Doubles we net $22.50 - 1 Double and 1 Unmatched we net $7.50 - and if 2 Unmatched we lose $30.00. There is a 1% Chance that a Triple may come up for which we can take out $5 insurance. Click here for reasons why.
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Well, both Arizona with 250 and Florida with 134 have gone to 11 consecutive Unmatched. We would have lost $45.00 but by playing all Unmatched as well we have mitigated our losses to $30.00.
Stake: $150.00
Bets: $105.00
Won: $ 75.00
Net: -$30.00
Cum Bets: $127.50
Cum Won: $150.00
Cum Net: $ 22.50
Balance: $172.50
Better luck next time.
Regards
Colin